Tuesday, August 30, 2016

PPF may not be appropriate to fund YOUR retirement


PPF (or any fixed income product) fails as a retirement funding option--SEQUEL

“Kitna Milega”?

This is the first question that an investor asks at the time of making an investment.  His “friendly neighborhood” advisor says “pataa nahin”.

It is highly likely that the investor declines to make the promised investment and instead goes for PPF      (likely advised by his CA)—which offers 8.1 %( w.e.f. 01/04/2016).

Is PPF that good?? Does it score over Equity Mutual funds?

Let’s see.

We decided to do a reality check as to see whether PPF does indeed scores over ELSS.
We requested one of our clients who had been investing (read saving) in PPF for last 15 odd years to provide us with a copy of his PPF passbook. We decided to run the check against HDFC Tax Saver (one of the few funds which has a twenty year record (date of inception—31/03/1996).

The table that emerged is as under:-

Date
Amount
Interest
Withdrawal
Balance
NAV
Units
Balance
Value
04/03/1998
30000


30000
11.47
2616
2616
30000
04/03/1999
20000



18.77
1066
3681
69093
05/03/1999
20000



18.77
1066
4747
89093
31/03/1999

4336






06/03/2000
60000



46.60
1288
6034
281191
31/03/2000

9312

143648




23/03/2001
60000



15.86
3783
9817
155701
31/03/2001

15622

219270




09/01/2002
60000


279270
17.41
3446
13264
230918
31/03/2002

21664






04/03/2003
60000


360934
19.49
3079
16342
318506
31/03/2003

27233

388168




02/03/2004
70000



41.43
1690
18032
747050
31/03/2004

31520

489688




04/03/2005
70000



70.68
990
19022
1344476
31/03/2005

39642

599329




10/02/2006
70000



117.18
598
19619
2296999
31/03/2006

48413

717742




01/03/2007


140000
577742
135.89
(1030)
18.589
2526077
20/03/2007
70000



129.22
542
19131
2472068
31/03/2007
56486


704228
133.88
422
19553
2617724
07/03/2008
40000



157.13
255
19807
3112325
31/03/2008

56338

800566




27/02/2009
70000



89.449
783
20590
1841746
31/03/2009

64512

935078




13/02/2010
70000



190.63
367
20967
3996052
31/03/2010

75273

1080351




11/08/2010
70000



227.54
308
21265
4838578
31/03/2011

89696

1240046




02/04/2011
70000



232.77
301
21565
5019792
31/03/2012

107424

1417470




12/04/2012
100000



220.89
453
22018
4803593
31/03/2013

132804

1650272




02/07/2013
100000



222.65
449
22467
5002346
31/03/2014

150099

1900373




09/04/2014
100000


2000373
283.74
352
22820
6474874









Summary
Total invested

Withdrawn
PPF Balance
Current  NAV


Current Value
26/08/2016
1266486

140000
2000373
408.189


9314873


Inference from the above table:-
  • The same Rs. 12.66 lacs invested in ELSS grew 8 times (Rs.93.15 lacs) more than what the PPF corpus grew over the same 16 year period.
  • In his quest of not losing money, the investor parked his savings in PPF, thereby losing whopping Rs. 80 lacs of the incremental gains  that could have been his had he invested in ELSS fund.
  • At no point in the last 10 years, when the market has witnessed big fluctuations, has the ELSS corpus been less than the PF corpus.
  • Even in March 2009, when the Sensex was at its lowest at roughly 9000 levels, the ELSS corpus was more than twice the value of the PPF corpus.
  • Even now, if the market were again to drop 50% like it did in 2008-2009(which no one believes it will), the ELSS corpus would still be higher than the PPF corpus, even after a 50% drop.
  • Apart from the returns aspect, there is the liquidity aspect. ELSS has a lock in of 3 years while PPF has a lock in of 15 years (although one can take a loan against the PPF balance—subject to term & conditions).
  • Tax benefit is same for the ELSS funds & PPF.
  • The only advantage that PPF has is that it cannot be attached by Income Tax authorities.

 Read Part 1 of the article here:-  PPF Fails as a Retirement funding product Part 1